Thursday, April 16, 2020

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales?

Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | MyKCM

Ten million Americans lost their jobs over the last two weeks. The next announced unemployment rate on May 8th is expected to be in the double digits. Because the health crisis brought the economy to a screeching halt, many are feeling a personal financial crisis. James Bullard, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, explained that the government is trying to find ways to assist those who have lost their jobs and the companies which were forced to close (think: your neighborhood restaurant). In a recent interview he said:
“This is a planned, organized partial shutdown of the U.S. economy in the second quarter. The overall goal is to keep everyone, households and businesses, whole.”
That’s promising, but we’re still uncertain as to when the recently unemployed will be able to return to work.

Another concern: how badly will the U.S. economy be damaged if people can’t buy homes?

A new concern is whether the high number of unemployed Americans will cause the residential real estate market to crash, putting a greater strain on the economy and leading to even more job losses. The housing industry is a major piece of the overall economy in this country.
Chris Herbert, Managing Director of the Joint Center for Housing Studies of Harvard University, in a post titled Responding to the Covid-19 Pandemic, addressed the toll this crisis will have on our nation, explaining:
“Housing is a foundational element of every person’s well-being. And with nearly a fifth of US gross domestic product rooted in housing-related expenditures, it is also critical to the well-being of our broader economy.”

How has the unemployment rate affected home sales in the past?

It’s logical to think there would be a direct correlation between the unemployment rate and home sales: as the unemployment rate went up, home sales would go down, and when the unemployment rate went down, home sales would go up.
However, research reviewing the last thirty years doesn’t show that direct relationship, as noted in the graph below. The blue and grey bars represent home sales, while the yellow line is the unemployment rate. Take a look at numbers 1 through 4:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | MyKCM
  1. The unemployment rate was rising between 1992-1993, yet home sales increased.
  2. The unemployment rate was rising between 2001-2003, and home sales increased.
  3. The unemployment rate was rising between 2007-2010, and home sales significantly decreased.
  4. The unemployment rate was falling continuously between 2015-2019, and home sales remained relatively flat.
The impact of the unemployment rate on home sales doesn’t seem to be as strong as we may have thought.

Isn’t this time different?

Yes. There is no doubt the country hasn’t seen job losses this quickly in almost one hundred years. How bad could it get? Goldman Sachs projects the unemployment rate to be 15% in the third quarter of 2020, flattening to single digits by the fourth quarter of this year, and then just over 6% percent by the fourth quarter of 2021. Not ideal for the housing industry, but manageable.

How does this compare to the other financial crises?

Some believe this is going to be reminiscent of The Great Depression. From the standpoint of unemployment rates alone (the only thing this article addresses), it does not compare. Here are the unemployment rates during the Great Depression, the Great Recession, and the projected rates moving forward:Will Surging Unemployment Crush Home Sales? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

We’ve given you the facts as we know them. The housing market will have challenges this year. However, with the help being given to those who have lost their jobs and the fact that we’re looking at a quick recovery for the economy after we address the health problem, the housing industry should be fine in the long term. Stay safe.

Wednesday, August 21, 2019

6890 SW Gaines Ave Stuart, FL 34997





Priced below appraisal! Private gated family compound! 100 feet of waterfront, gated ESTATE (3242 sq ft) & GUEST (1116 sq ft) home. 100'of hurricane protected dock with a 16k lb boat lift and room for a 65' boat on the South Fork of the Saint Lucie River, minutes from the Okeechobee Waterway. The Main home was just renovated with all new tile floors, new bathroom fixtures & lighting. New cabinets, quartzite countertops, wine cooler and commercial style gas range with exhaust hood bring the kitchen to 2019. Entertain on the huge deck with tiki bar, solar-heated pool & new hot tub. The 2 bedroom 2 bath guest house/mother-in-law house is CBS, built in 2005 and ADA COMPLIANT 2 more bedrooms and baths, has its own garage and screen porch. Location! Privacy! Minutes from 95.

The McAllister Int'l Group of Keller Williams Realty Treasure Coast

For details call 772-252-4150 or visit:
http://bit.ly/6890SWGainesAve

Monday, July 29, 2019

1409 & 1807 SW Hunter Drive, Okeechobee, FL 34974





Martin County Ranch Community is in Indiantown, off the grade, the wonderful, scenic RT 714 also known as Martin Hwy. Okeechobee address is for mailing purpose only. Could buy adjacent 23 A lot: either 27 acres for 250K or 50+ Acres for 450K. your choice! Upscale gated community boasts 4.5 Miles of equestrian trails, a beautiful front entrance, paved roads, and underground utilities. Imagine this wonderful Country setting only 13 miles west of I95. Features fenced pasture, custom build your private country estate of 2800 Min. home and garage, one house and guest home per 20 acres. Enjoy the peace and quiet and nature as it was meant to be. Access to highway, airports and beaches.

772-252-4150. http://bit.ly/1409SWHunterDrive & http://bit.ly/1807SWHunterDrive

We are a proud affiliate of Keller Williams Realty of the Treasure Coast. All KW offices are independently owned and operated. Michael Brue, Broker, 772-419-0400. 819 S. Federal Hwy., PH, Stuart, Florida. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Wednesday, May 29, 2019

674 SE Ron Rico Terrace, Port Saint Lucie, FL 34983 UNBRANDED





Great opportunity to own a pool home with tons of unique features inside! This 3/2/1 home has Miami cedar ceilings through the living, dining, kitchen and master bedroom. New tile floors throughout. Wainscoting accents the walls in the dining and family room. Large family room has built-in shelving at one end and french doors lead to the Florida room full of windows. The backyard feels like a true oasis with in-ground pool, wood privacy fence, and strategically placed palm trees for enhanced privacy. Fresh mulch in front and back yards. Over-sized one-car garage gives you ample storage for toys and tools. New 20-year roof is ready to go...buyer to choose the color. If you are in search of a home that stands out from the others, this is your place!



561-756-0891. www.TreasureCoastHomesOnline.com



We are a proud affiliate of Keller Williams Realty of the Treasure Coast. All KW offices are independently owned and operated. Michael Brue, Broker, 772-419-0400. 819 S. Federal Hwy., PH, Stuart, Florida. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Monday, April 15, 2019

4701 SW Wild Turkey Lane, Indiantown, FL 34956





20 Acres, Bring your horses, cattle, polo ponies, fenced and gated on a dead-end street in a very quiet area off 714 (The Grade). Trees are in clusters, lots of wide open spaces, build your own custom Ranch and Barn. Abutting this property is the bridal path to the next street. Property is one of the most private available in Martin County with natural trees and Florida greenery in a great tranquil setting. Stuart Woods Ranch is a hidden gem, so rural and natural, yet close to Palm City, 12 mins to I95, 20 mins to shopping and Turnpike. Under 2 hours to Orlando. 35 mins to Beach. Ask about Martin County Permits and Impact Fees.

Call 561-756-0891

We are a proud affiliate of Keller Williams Realty of the Treasure Coast. All KW offices are independently owned and operated. Michael Brue, Broker, 772-419-0400. 819 S. Federal Hwy., PH, Stuart, Florida. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Tuesday, April 9, 2019

158 SW Fernleaf Tr Trail, Port Saint Lucie, FL 34953





Pets welcome at this gorgeous pool home in the Crane Point section of Sawgrass Lakes. 4 bed, 2 bath home features an open kitchen along with a formal living and dining rooms. Arched windows and doorways provide additional architectural detail. Relaxing pool with full screen enclosure plus a waterfall makes for a lovely back yard oasis. The split bedroom floor plan gives the master suite a private, quiet retreat, with dual sinks, a roman rub, separate shower and walk-in closet in the bath. Crane Point is a gated, pet friendly community with low HOA fees and is very close to dining, shopping and entertainment in Port Saint Lucie and the surrounding areas. Non commercial trucks are welcome. This home is priced to sell; call your real estate agent today for a showing before it is gone!



 561-756-0891. www.TreasureCoastHomesOnline.com



We are a proud affiliate of Keller Williams Realty of the Treasure Coast. All KW offices are independently owned and operated. Michael Brue, Broker, 772-419-0400. 819 S. Federal Hwy., PH, Stuart, Florida. Equal Housing Opportunity.

Friday, February 1, 2019

242 Monaco Place, Vero Beach, FL 32960





Built in 2017 this popular Pamplona model is nearly new! Immaculate with upgrades throughout it is a corner villa on a large lot and the only shared wall is the garage, so no noise from neighbors. Ten ft ceilings throughout, 18'x18' tiles, 8 ft door in front entrance, recessed lighting and other upgrades galore. Massive granite island in the kitchen with 42'' cabinets that is open to the living area. Walk-in closet and walk-in shower in the master. Large master bedroom has trey ceilings and custom remote control blinds. Both bathrooms already have grab bars installed. ''Flex Room'' can be office or converted to 3rd bedroom. Back of home features a screened patio with water view. Provence Bay has a lovely community pool, picnic & play area. Pet friendly up to 3 pets!

Call 561-756-0891

We are a proud affiliate of Keller Williams Realty of the Treasure Coast. All KW offices are independently owned and operated. Michael Brue, Broker, 772-419-0400. 819 S. Federal Hwy., PH, Stuart, Florida. Equal Housing Opportunity.